← Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 26.3% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 37.5% | -7.2 |
| Slimes | 13.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.5% | +4.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.1% | +3.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.4% | -6.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.1% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 59.9% | +6.3 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.4% | +24.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.9% | +20.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Water Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Savage Slash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |